Updated Oct 17

The Long-Range Strike Campaign

Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine’s grid has become nationwide, and it now hits heavy industry too. Over October 16–17 it sent nearly 800 drones in three waves, with ballistic and cruise missiles whose number the Air Force did not publish. The Energy Ministry reported energy sites hit in ten oblasts, as far west as Volyn, Rivne and Ternopil. Vinnytsia lost all power, and 270,000 customers in Volyn and 280,000 in Kharkiv were cut off. Six ballistic missiles struck the Zaporizhstal steel plant, its owner said, and a German cable maker halted its factory in Lutsk. Officials counted seven dead nationwide.

Ukraine’s campaign, resumed on October 15 after a pause during the announced energy truce, has a measured effect to show. The strike on Ryazan halted one of the refinery’s four main crude units, industry sources told Reuters. On October 16 a drone set fire to a Gazprom condensate plant near Surgut, 2,340 kilometres from the border, and the regional governor acknowledged the fire. Satellite imagery confirms four Su-34 bombers destroyed at Borisoglebsk; Ukraine’s claim of two more damaged is its own.

New Oct 17

in all one topics

The whole story1 chapters

The state of it — as of October 17, 2026

3.8 mb/d

Russian refinery throughput in June, the lowest in more than twenty years (IEA)

5 of 32

major Russian refineries not struck since 2022, all 3,500 km or more away (IEA)

3 million+

Kyiv residents cut off by a single strike on the grid on October 8

In this story

Updated Oct 17 · 5 new

Black Sea Shipping

Merchant crews off Romania and Bulgaria have become the sea war’s casualties, and its cost now falls on both sides’ grain trade.

AP counts drone attacks on at least seven cargo ships off Romania and Bulgaria in October, leaving two dead and at least 25 missing. On October 13 the HS Dignity was hit off Bulgaria and 11 of its crew are missing; on October 14–15 two tankers, the Yara J and the Wine Trader, burned near Sulina, and seven of the Wine Trader’s sailors are still being searched for. Bulgaria’s prime minister told parliament the logic points to Russia, “the problem is that we cannot prove it”. Russia’s defence ministry, for its part, says it struck three cargo ships bound for Odesa and Mykolaiv on October 12, claiming they carried military cargo, which Reuters could not verify.

Insurers had already moved: in September London’s Joint War Committee listed almost the whole sea as a war-risk area. And Russia’s grain has stopped using its own Black Sea ports. In early October its port exports fell more than 80 per cent to 436,000 tonnes, Interfax figures show, and none of it left through a Black Sea port.

Continue: Black Sea Shipping →

7+ ships

cargo ships hit off Romania and Bulgaria in October; 2 dead, 25+ missing

0 ports

on the Black Sea among Russia’s grain-loading ports in early October, out of seven

1 a day

ships calling at Odesa’s ports, down from seven or eight

Today

NewOct 17, 2026

Russia’s Energy Strikes Spread West, and Steel Plants Join the Targets

Over October 16–17 Russia launched nearly 800 drones in three waves, with ballistic and cruise missiles, at Ukraine’s grid, by the Air Force’s counts. The Energy Ministry reported energy sites hit in ten oblasts, reaching west to Volyn, Rivne and Ternopil; Zelensky counted more than 15 generation and transmission facilities. Vinnytsia lost all power, 270,000 customers in Volyn and 280,000 in Kharkiv went dark, and seven people died. Metinvest said six ballistic missiles struck its Zaporizhstal steel plant, and a German cable maker halted its Lutsk factory. The Air Force did not publish how many ballistic missiles were fired.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarThe Kyiv IndependentKyiv PostNV (Novoye Vremya)Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

NewOct 16, 2026

Drones Reach Surgut, 2,340 Kilometres From the Border

A Ukrainian drone set fire to Gazprom’s Chernomyrdin condensate stabilisation plant near Surgut in Khanty-Mansi on October 16, by the open-source analysis of the Russian outlet Astra relayed by ISW — about 2,340 kilometres from the border, and the first Ukrainian strike ISW has recorded in the region. The plant processes gas condensate for motor and aviation fuel. Governor Ruslan Kukharuk acknowledged a fire at an industrial facility in Surgutsky district without naming it. It is not the campaign’s deepest strike: Omsk lies about 2,500 kilometres out.

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Institute for the Study of War

NewOct 15, 2026

Ukraine Ends Its Pause at Ryazan

Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian energy overnight on October 14–15, hitting the Ryazan refinery about 300 kilometres southeast of Moscow. Russia’s defence ministry and the Ryazan governor acknowledged the fire and imagery shows it. The strike halted CDU-6, one of the plant’s four primary crude units, and damaged pipelines; the other three kept running, two industry sources told Reuters. The same unit had been shut after a September strike. Asked by the Financial Times how long the pause would last, Zelensky said: “We’re done.”

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Associated PressInstitute for the Study of WarPBS NewsHourThe Kyiv IndependentInstitute for the Study of War

NewOct 15, 2026

Neptunes at Borisoglebsk: Six Bombers Claimed, Four Seen

Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles struck Borisoglebsk airfield in Voronezh oblast overnight on October 14–15 — 267 kilometres from the border by ISW’s measure, 370 from the front by the Kyiv Independent’s. The navy said six Su-34M bombers were hit; Zelensky said four were destroyed and two damaged. Satellite imagery collected on October 15 confirms four Su-34s destroyed, ISW says, as did AviVector’s reading; the two damaged rest on Ukraine’s word. Local footage and the regional governor’s drone warnings corroborate the attack.

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The Kyiv IndependentUnited24 MediaInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 15, 2026

Three days, we didn't attack any energy, diesel and et cetera systems of Russia, and three days they attack us.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Not yet checked

Unverified. ISW cites numerous reports that Ukraine refrained from energy strikes from October 11 to 14 while Russia kept striking; the Kremlin says Ukraine never stopped. Ukraine hit a Yandex data centre, not an energy site, on October 10–11.

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PBS NewsHourInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Earlier this month

Oct 14, 2026

Thirty-Nine Ballistic Missiles, Four Stopped, and Kyiv’s Heating Plants Hit

Overnight on October 13–14 Russia fired 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones at energy in Kyiv, Kyiv oblast and Kharkiv, Zelensky said; the Air Force says it neutralised four of the missiles and 115 drones. The prime minister said all three of Kyiv’s combined heat and power plants were attacked, along with facilities supplying the capital and central Ukraine. Zelensky put the damage at 26 energy sites and 600,000 people without power. A missile on a Desnyanskyi apartment block killed at least three, Kyiv police said. The Air Force said partners sent no warning of the first launches.

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The Kyiv IndependentUkrainska Pravda

Oct 12, 2026

A Truce Announced in Washington, and Russia Keeps Hitting the Grid

Hours after Donald Trump announced on October 11 an “energy ceasefire” that neither government had recognised, Russia struck Kharkiv’s Thermal Power Plant No. 5, Zelensky said. Overnight a jet-powered drone hit a gas production facility and at least five more energy targets were struck, by his account. Ukraine, by its own account and according to reports ISW summarised, held off Russian energy targets from October 11 to 14; the Kremlin says it never stopped. Neither side’s claim has been independently verified.

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Institute for the Study of WarNPRInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 9, 2026

Data Centres Become Targets on Both Sides

Russia has struck data centres in Kyiv every day since September 23, providers reporting damage and disruption; its defence ministry said so on September 11. On October 8 Yandex said a drone strike set fire to its data centre at Sasovo in Ryazan oblast, about 530 kilometres from the border, and suspended its operations; geolocated footage and satellite imagery show the damage. The next night a strike “completely disabled” several modules of its Kaluga centre, the company said, and its shares fell about 4 per cent. Asked about the strikes, Zelensky said: “We always respond in kind.” A third, in Vladimir, halted after a strike on October 10–11, Yandex said.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarIntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)IntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)Kyiv PostInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 9, 2026

Omsk Is Struck a Second Time, and Nobody Reports a Halt

Ukraine’s General Staff said it struck the Omsk refinery on October 8 for the second time since July — about 2,450 kilometres from the border by ISW’s measure, 2,500 in other accounts — and the Salavat plant in Bashkortostan. Local officials acknowledged attacks without naming targets; no halt was reported. Zelensky said drones hit Lukoil’s Ukhta refinery the next day, 1,780 kilometres out by one measure and 1,900 by his; Komi’s governor said nothing was damaged. On October 10 the Rostov-on-Don terminal that ships Novoshakhtinsk’s output burned. Imagery shows at least seven of its twelve tanks damaged.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarIntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)IntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)Kyiv PostInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 9, 2026

The Campaign Reaches the Plants Behind Russia’s Missiles

Ukraine’s General Staff reported strikes overnight on October 8–9 on the Redkino plant in Tver oblast, about 513 kilometres from the border, which it says makes a fuel component for Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles, and on a launch-systems institute and a missile-elimination centre in Nizhny Novgorod oblast, over 700 kilometres out. Tver’s governor confirmed a fire at a plant; Nizhny Novgorod’s, only an attack and debris damage. Two weeks earlier it reported hitting plants in Ulyanovsk and Voronezh, both shown in geolocated footage, and a third in Tula oblast that nothing corroborates. What each supplies is its account.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarIntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)Kyiv Post

Oct 8, 2026

Three Million in Kyiv Lose Power as the Target Becomes the Wires

A Russian strike on the evening of October 8 hit what Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal called one of Kyiv’s key energy facilities, which he did not name. More than three million residents lost power, officials told the Kyiv Independent; all three metro lines stopped, and the mayor, Vitali Klitschko, told AFP that residents with somewhere to go outside the capital should leave. Scheduled cuts resumed the next morning. Ukrenergo said Russia had changed tactics to “continuous strikes on substations and transmission and distribution lines” near big cities, which can leave districts dark even when power is available elsewhere. That describes transmission; no figure for generating capacity lost was given. These accounts are cited as gathered by IntelliNews.

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IntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)IntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)Kyiv Post

Oct 8, 2026

A Target List for Ukraine’s Winter, Supplied by Ukraine

RFE/RL’s investigative unit Skhemy analysed a planning document it says was prepared on the Russian side and passed on by Ukrainian forces. It lists 60 targets — hydroelectric plants, the switchyards of three nuclear plants, lines importing power from Europe, thermal plants, substations and boiler houses — and sets out how to cut electricity and heat to major cities by up to 90 per cent. No independent authentication is cited, and experts consulted called it calculations rather than an operational plan. Three plants struck on September 29–30 are on it. Ukraine’s energy minister showed it to allies on September 17.

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Yahoo NewsInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 7, 2026

Forty-Eight Cruise Missiles in a Night, and Twenty-Two Dead in One Town

Russia fired 48 cruise missiles and 130 drones overnight into October 7, Ukraine’s Air Force said, along with ballistic and anti-ship missiles it did not count; no interception figures were published. The heaviest toll was in Pryluky, Chernihiv region, where Zelensky said 22 people were killed, five of them children, and 54 wounded. Kremenchuk, Oleksandriya and Zaporizhzhia were also hit. The interior minister put the dead nationally at 28 that evening; the Kyiv Post counted at least 32 a day later. The Institute for the Study of War reports two totals for killed and wounded together, 128 and 135.

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Institute for the Study of WarIntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)The Guardian

Oct 5, 2026

Russia Goes After the Dnipro Bridges, and Ukraine Runs Short of Locomotives

Kyiv’s mayor reported four waves of drone strikes on the Southern Bridge over the Dnipro between October 1 and 2, and Russia’s defence ministry acknowledged striking a road-rail bridge in the capital. On October 6 a bridge in Zaporizhzhia was hit, the regional head said. Ukraine’s military intelligence reports that a new variant of the Geran drone carries a warhead built to cut bridges. On October 5 the agrarian minister, Taras Vysotskyi, said Ukraine had nearly exhausted its reserve of locomotives after Russian strikes on rolling stock and was asking European railways of the same gauge for more.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 5, 2026

Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries have disabled over 51 percent of Russia’s total oil refining capacity.

— Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Not yet checked

Unverified. The ministry does not say whether “disabled” means offline now or struck at some point. Other counts measure other things: data cited by the Financial Times has refineries running at about 60 per cent of capacity; Russia’s deputy prime minister put 10 per cent under repair in early September.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarKyiv PostIntelliNews (bne IntelliNews)

Oct 2, 2026

Fourteen Tanks Claimed, Four Seen: a Crude Hub Near Samara Is Hit Twice

Ukraine’s General Staff reported striking the pipeline dispatch station near Prosvet in Samara oblast, about 937 kilometres from the border, where Urals export crude is blended, on the night of October 1–2. It later claimed 14 tanks damaged. Satellite imagery published on October 5 showed less: two tanks badly damaged or destroyed and two others damaged. A second strike followed on October 7, and imagery the next day showed five tanks burning. Geolocated footage also showed a large fire at a similar station at Konstantinovo in Moscow oblast on October 5; Ukraine did not claim it.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 30, 2026

The Largest Attack on Ukraine’s Power System Since Spring

Russia launched its largest combined attack on Ukraine’s energy system since spring overnight into September 30, aimed mainly at Kyiv and its region. Ukraine’s Air Force counted 188 drones, 86 of them jet-powered, and reported 155 downed; the number of missiles fired was not published, only that five were stopped. Another 285 drones followed in daylight, 254 reported downed. Centrenergo confirmed damage to the Trypilska thermal plant, 40 kilometres from Kyiv, which Russia’s defence ministry named as a target; neither gave a capacity figure. Emergency power cuts followed in Kyiv region, and at least five people were killed across eleven regions. Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi said energy sites had been hit almost daily since summer, but nothing on this scale since the last heating season ended.

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Institute for the Study of WarBBC NewsUkrainska PravdaKyiv Post

Sep 25, 2026

Novoshakhtinsk Halts by Its Governor’s Own Account; Perm, Samara and Ilsky Are Hit

Satellite imagery shows tanks, a pump station and pipelines damaged between two primary units at the Kuibyshev plant in Samara after strikes on September 22; that it stopped is reported only by an open-source channel. On September 25 Rostov’s governor acknowledged the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, 14 kilometres from the border, had temporarily halted. Ukraine’s General Staff reported hitting Lukoil’s Perm refinery, about 1,449 kilometres out; the governor confirmed only an “industrial facility”. Imagery later showed three primary units damaged at Ilsky after a September 26 strike. No restart date has been given.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 20, 2026

Three Steel Plants Out, and Two-Fifths of Ukraine’s Modern Warehouses Gone

The Financial Times estimated on September 20 that Russia’s air campaign has destroyed about 2.1 million of Ukraine’s 5 million square metres of modern warehouse space, 900,000 of it in recent months, and disabled the three remaining major steel plants, which make 90 per cent of national output. Metinvest had reported two days earlier that ballistic missile strikes forced all three to suspend work. Ukraine’s economy ministry puts this year’s damage to fixed assets at about $10 billion — its own estimate of its own losses. The FT’s figures are cited as relayed by Russia Matters.

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Russia MattersInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 18, 2026

Five Hundred Locomotives, and Most of the Damage Done This Year

More than 500 locomotives have been damaged or destroyed since the start of the war, more than 60 per cent of that in the past eight months, according to Ukrzaliznytsia’s head Oleksandr Pertsovskyi. Most strikes fall within 200 kilometres of the front or the Russian border, but repeaters sited in Belarus have extended the reach of attacks on trains. On the night of September 17–18 Russia launched 93 Shahed-type drones, 46 jet-powered, against six oblasts; Ukraine reported 69 drones downed, and a strike on an electric train near Lypkuvativka killed at least one person.

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Institute for the Study of War

Sep 18, 2026

Isolate frontline areas, sow panic and fear among the Ukrainian population, and paralyze the Ukrainian economy.

— Oleksandr Pertsovskyi

Not yet checked

Ukrzaliznytsia’s head describing what he takes the Russian rail campaign to be for. An interested party attributing intent to an adversary: the damage he counts is his own network’s and well attested, the purpose he ascribes to it is not independently established.

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Institute for the Study of War

Sep 17, 2026

A Refinery Stops and an Airfield Burns in the Same Night

The Slavneft-YANOS refinery at Yaroslavl, some 700 kilometres from the front, ceased production after a strike on September 17 damaged its AVT-3 unit — 17,140 tonnes of crude a day, about 40 per cent of the plant’s capacity. The figure comes from Reuters’ industry sources, relayed by ISW; RFE/RL names the same refinery independently. The same overnight attack reached a military airfield at Rostov-on-Don, where Ukraine’s security service said three military transport aircraft and three helicopters were hit — a claim by the side that flew the mission, with no Russian acknowledgement and no imagery cited. ISW separately assesses that Ukraine has been striking military assets in Rostov Oblast since at least June.

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Institute for the Study of WarRadio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Sep 17, 2026

The Campaign Has an Effect, and This Time It Is Not Ukraine Saying So

The International Energy Agency put Russian refinery throughput at 3.8 million barrels a day in June, the lowest in more than twenty years and about 30 per cent down on a year earlier, with gasoline output off 20 per cent and diesel estimated off nearly 30. Through the first eight months of 2026 a Russian refinery was hit on average once every three days; of 32 major refineries, five remain untouched since 2022, all between 3,500 and 6,500 kilometres from Ukraine. Kpler, measuring separately, put crude runs at a 21-year low with roughly 58 per cent of capacity attacked or in downtime, and product exports down to 1.2 million barrels a day from 2.3 a year earlier while crude exports rose — unprocessed barrels going out because they can no longer be processed. Neither body is a party to the war, and neither is relaying a belligerent’s tally.

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International Energy AgencyKpler

This quarter

Sep 13, 2026

Struck Again Before It Could Be Repaired: TANECO, 1,105 Kilometres Out

Satellite imagery published through an open-source channel shows damage to the ELOU-AVT-7 processing unit at the TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, about 1,105 kilometres from the border, after a strike on September 13. It is not a depth record — Omsk, hit in July, is roughly 2,500 kilometres out — but it is an instance of the pattern both the IEA and Kpler now describe as the campaign’s method: refineries struck again before repairs finish, so outages lengthen rather than clear. The damage is corroborated by imagery rather than asserted by the striking side, which is the distinction this page exists to keep.

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Institute for the Study of WarKyiv Post

Sep 6, 2026

Inside the Truce Window, a Refinery's Petrol Unit Is Hit Again

Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan refinery on the morning of 6 September, hitting the Isomal-2 isomerization unit — the part that turns low-octane fractions into the blending component the plant needs for Euro-5 petrol. Militarnyi placed the strike at the unit's coordinates from footage published by the Exilenova+ outlet. The same unit was hit in December 2025; by May the refinery was reported to have lost 90 to 100 percent of its capacity. Rosneft's Ryazan plant runs about 17 million tonnes of crude a year. The strike also fixes the halt's scope: Kyiv and Moscow, nothing else.

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Militarnyi

Sep 5, 2026

For Three Days, the Long War Stops Over Two Cities

Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt long-range strikes on Kyiv and Moscow for three days so a US delegation could travel between them. Zelensky said on 5 September that Ukraine would hold to it until the end of 7 September; Putin, meeting Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow the same day, confirmed he had ordered Russian strikes on Kyiv stopped for three days from midnight, and acknowledged Ukraine had already eased off during the visit. It is the first time either side has stopped the campaign by agreement, and the terms show how narrow it is: two cities, not two countries. Putin rejected the wider frontline ceasefire Ukraine proposed, and strikes elsewhere never paused. There is a precedent — Ukraine stopped hitting Moscow Oblast during the CIA director's visit on 26 August.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 4, 2026

A One-Way Drone Goes After One Man: the SBU Chief

Russia struck the Security Service headquarters in Kyiv on 4 September with a Geran-type drone, and Zelensky said it was aimed at the office of the service's head, Oleksandr Poklad; the two met afterwards. The drone was remotely flown, according to Ukrainian presidential adviser Serhiy 'Flash' Beskrestnov, its control link likely held open by a mesh-network repeater a Russian agent switched on within five kilometres of the building. Beskrestnov speaks from experience: four Shahed drones were sent after him in April. A campaign built to burn infrastructure is now pointed at named individuals.

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Institute for the Study of War

Sep 3, 2026

Moscow's Two Biggest Airports Shut for a Second Night, and Nobody Fired a Shot

Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo suspended operations for a second consecutive night — The Moscow Times, from flight-monitoring data, on 3 September — after Zelensky warned on 1 September that Ukrainian drones would threaten Russian airspace and Ukraine issued a notice to airmen. Russia's regulator Rosaviatsia first called the notice illegitimateand said flights were normal, then announced the suspensions itself. Zelensky says international airlines have begun cancelling flights to Russia — his claim alone. Ukraine struck the physical layer too: geolocated footage shows an air traffic control radar, two oil depots and an air defence battery hit at Adler.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 1, 2026

A Sixth Day of Barrage on Kyiv, and Russia Starts Striking Through the Daylight

Russia's assault on Kyiv ran into a sixth consecutive day around 1 September. In the overnight ballistic attack at least 12 died and 21 were injured in the city and oblast — six of the dead Ukrainian Railways staff, killed when a missile hit a depot. The next night Russia fired four missiles and 174 drones, of which Ukraine downed 138; Ukrenergo reported outages in five oblasts. The change ISW flags is method, not volume: Russia has begun striking through the daylight, not only overnight, to wear the population down — prompting Ukraine to split its air alerts into a yellow drone level and a red missile level.

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The Kyiv IndependentInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 1, 2026

Ukraine's 40-day strike campaign, ordered by Zelensky on 25 June, inflicted damage on Russia equivalent to about 1 percent of GDP.

— Vladimir Putin

Aug 30, 2026

The Campaign Reaches Russia's Second-Largest Refinery, 790 Kilometres From the Border

Ukrainian drones struck the Kirishi refinery in Leningrad Oblast on the night of 29–30 August — about 790 kilometres from the international border, the only refinery in Russia's northwest, and at roughly 20 million tonnes a year some six percent of national refining capacity. Governor Alexander Drozdenko acknowledged a fire and said air defences downed 42 drones. By 2 September the plant had completely halted crude processing: the strike damaged its AVT-6 and AT-1 units — about 48 percent of capacity between them — while its other two units were already offline, industry sources told Reuters and The Moscow Times. That is the fifth strike since March 2025, and a rare case where a struck plant is confirmed fully offline rather than merely burning. The same night's tasking also hit a Pantsir-S1, radars and ammunition depots at the Yeysk and Millerovo airfields, corroborated by geolocated footage and NASA FIRMS.

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Institute for the Study of WarKyiv PostThe Moscow TimesUnited24 MediaMilitarnyi

Aug 29, 2026

Russia's Largest Bank Says Marketplace Spending Has Fallen 15 Percent

Sberbank CFO Taras Skvortsov said on 29 August that Russian consumer spending on marketplaces has dropped 15 percent in recent weeks, and that marketplaces account for 15 percent of all Russian consumer spending. The figure matters for who gives it: Russia's largest bank, reading its own payments data, has no interest in advertising the effect of Ukrainian warehouse strikes. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service separately put Ozon's commissions and logistics charges at 47.8 percent of product value from April to June, rising to 55 percent for sellers using its warehouses — an interested party's account of a Russian company's distress, recorded as its claim.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 29, 2026

Twenty-Eight Hours of Alerts, and Thirty-Seven Dead at an Ammunition Store

Russia ran a combined package against Kyiv City and Oblast across 28 and 29 August lasting more than 28 hours — over 550 Banderol, Shahed, Gerbera and Parodiya munitions plus Onyx and Iskander-M missiles from occupied Crimea, striking 15 locations. Ukrainian Air Force data indicate about 86 percent of strike drones were downed; the missile totals were withheld again, as they have been since 11 August, so there is no denominator for what got through. A strike on an ammunition warehouse near Myla, on Kyiv's western outskirts, set off secondary detonations that damaged at least 130 residential buildings and a retirement home, killing at least 37 and injuring 42.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 27, 2026

A 258-Drone Package, and the Ballistic Numbers Stay Hidden

Russia sent 258 Shahed-, Gerbera- and other-type drones at Ukraine overnight into 27 August, with two Oniks anti-ship missiles, three S8000 Banderol cruise missiles and an undisclosed number of Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistics. Ukraine's Air Force reported 222 drones, one Oniks, all three Banderols and seven ballistic missiles intercepted or suppressed, with strikes at 15 locations and debris at 11 more. Odesa, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava oblasts and Zaporizhzhia were the main targets; a woman was killed in Sumy Oblast. As since 11 August the ballistic launch count was withheld, so the seven downed cannot be read as a rate.

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Hromadske

Aug 26, 2026

Every Big Lukoil Refinery in Russia Is Now Shut

A drone strike and fire on 26 August forced Lukoil to halt crude processing at Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez, and with it the company's last operating major refinery: Perm has been down since 21 August, Volgograd since 31 July. NORSI is Russia's fourth-largest plant by throughput and second by petrol output — above 15 million tonnes of crude a year. Reuters' industry sources describe damage to processing units, inter-shop links and plant utilities, with no repair timeline. The Nizhny Novgorod governor confirmed a strike on an unnamed industrial site; Ukraine's General Staff named the refinery, and on 4 September — an interested witness — confirmed the plant had suspended operations. No restart date has been published. It is the fifth time NORSI has been stopped this year, and the first time all three plants have been down together.

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United24 MediaAl Jazeera EnglishInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 26, 2026

The Warehouse War: Wildberries Loses a Hundred Thousand Square Metres

A drone strike destroyed a Wildberries logistics centre at Kotovsk in Tambov Oblast, 500 kilometres southeast of Moscow; governor Yevgeny Pervyshov said it was completely destroyed after about 100,000 square metres caught alight. Russia's defence ministry claimed 426 drones intercepted overnight; at least 12 people were killed in the wave. Ukraine has hit Wildberries since mid-July and its rival Ozon in recent days: together they dominate one of the few growing parts of a stagnant economy. Kyiv says Wildberries carries military logistics; Moscow and the company say otherwise. The same night, glide bombs severely damaged the Kherson thermal power plant.

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Al Jazeera EnglishInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 25, 2026

Two Killed at Afipsky, and Perm Turns Out to Have Lost Most of Its Capacity

Drones struck two more southern refineries on 25 August. Krasnodar governor Veniamin Kondratyev said falling debris killed two people at the Afipsky refinery, which caught fire; in Rostov Oblast the Novoshakhtinsky refinery was damaged and suspended processing. The more consequential number came from satellite imagery: the Dnipro OSINT project assessed that Lukoil's Perm refinery, struck on 21 August more than 1,500 kilometres from the border, had lost roughly 86 percent of its primary crude-processing capacity, about 11.3 million tonnes a year. Industry sources had put the repair window at one to two weeks. A single OSINT estimate, not a measurement.

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The Moscow TimesUnited24 Media

Aug 23, 2026

The Campaign Turns on the Air Defences Themselves

ISW assessed on August 23 that Ukraine is running a sustained campaign to suppress and destroy Russian air defences at intermediate range — striking Su-33 and MiG-29 fighters, a SAM unit and integrated air-defence assets in Krasnodar Krai, air-defence sensors in Rostov Oblast and radars in occupied Crimea, and destroying an Iskander-M launcher near the border. The purpose is to degrade Russia's ability to defend its rear against the deep strikes that follow. The claims come from Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces and Zelensky, relayed rather than geolocated; the same commander reports 267 power plants struck August 1–22, a category not comparable with earlier substation counts.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 23, 2026

Two Passenger Trains Struck in a Day

Russian forces hit two Ukrainian passenger trains on August 23. A double-tap Geran-type drone strike on an electric train at Lymanivka station in Kharkiv Oblast — a second strike timed for the responders — killed one civilian and injured four. A Zhytomyr–Odesa service carrying 593 people, 15 of them children, was struck without injury because officials recognised the threat and evacuated the train first, the chairman of Ukrainian Railways said. Rail has been a standing target of the Russian campaign; the double-tap is what separates these from routine damage.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 21, 2026

Russia's Seventh-Largest Refinery Goes Down as the Fuel Crisis Deepens

The Perm refinery stopped work after an August 21 drone strike, industry sources told Reuters. Its CDU-4 unit — about 40 percent of the plant, 14,000 tonnes of crude a day — was shut, with repairs put at one to two weeks; CDU-5, another 34 percent, has been down since a July 29 strike. Zelensky confirmed the strike. Retail petrol has risen 7.4 percent this year to about 70 roubles a litre, past 100 in some regions, and the antimonopoly service has opened 41 cases against oil companies.

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UkrinformEuronews

Aug 20, 2026

Sixteen Dead in Kyiv, and Not One Ballistic Missile Stopped

A combined Russian package that began just before midnight on August 19 and ran into the afternoon killed at least 16 people in and around Kyiv and injured 33, collapsing a nine-storey block in Solomianskyi and damaging a school and a children's medical centre. Ukraine's air force reported dozens of ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles and 168 drones, and said it downed 41 of 46 cruise missiles and 145 drones. It intercepted none of the ballistic missiles — and no longer publishes how many were fired, having stopped announcing the figure earlier in August on security grounds.

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The GuardianAl Jazeera English

Aug 17, 2026

Russia Turns on the Gas Fields as Ukraine's Civilian Toll Hits a Four-Year High

Russia spent the week on Ukraine's energy firms and its cities. Naftogaz, the state gas company, said its gas-production facilities were struck thirteen times in the week from August 10 and 293 times this year — a count that names no regions, assets or cost, and covers gas production rather than the grid. A missile hit ArcelorMittal's Kryvyi Rih works, killing two and partly halting production (confirmed by the company that suffered it), and a ballistic missile burned much of Kyiv's Petrovka book market, injuring six. The United Nations, with nothing at stake in the count, recorded 437 civilians killed and 2,610 injured across Ukraine in July — the worst month since May 2022, about 30 percent above June's own record, seventeen of the dead children. The defence can no longer be read: the Air Force stopped publishing missile figures on August 11, giving only drone counts, while Zelensky's weekly total for August 9-15 (more than 1,550 drones, nearly 1,560 glide bombs, 62 missiles) carried no interception figure at all.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarAssociated PressThe GuardianPBS NewsHour

Aug 16, 2026

The War's Largest Salvo Burns Russia's Biggest Warehouse, Forty Kilometres From Moscow

Overnight into August 16 Ukraine sent more than 800 long-range drones into Russia, one of the war's largest attacks. Its centrepiece was a 250,000-square-metre Wildberries distribution hub at Podolsk, about forty kilometres south of central Moscow and 420 from the border — the retailer's single largest warehouse, corroborated three ways: geolocated footage, Moscow Oblast Governor Andrey Vorobyov, and the company, which confirmed the blaze and a forced logistics reorganisation. A second warehouse burned nearby. Ukraine says it has now disabled seven of the retailer's ten largest logistics centres — a category claim — after a campaign that had destroyed at least 1.18 million square metres, a fifth of its capacity, plus a cyberattack on August 10-11. Drones also hit the Kamensky solid-rocket-fuel plant in Rostov Oblast, with satellite imagery showing workshops destroyed. Regional authorities put the night's dead at six. The interception figures do not fit together: the Defence Ministry claimed 822 drones destroyed overnight and 1,478 over 24 hours — both above the number reported launched, and the outlet carrying the higher figure called it probably exaggerated; Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said about 600 drones headed for the capital region and 201 were destroyed.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarAssociated PressThe GuardianPBS NewsHour

Aug 15, 2026

Flamingos Hit a Space-Rocket Plant, and Ukraine Starts Hunting the Launchers

Overnight into 15 August Ukraine fired FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles at the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara — central, the Ukrainian General Staff said, to Russia's effort to build its own battlefield satellite communications — and a fire followed. The same side measured the distance two ways: the General Staff put Samara roughly 1,488 km from the border, Zelensky about 900 km. Two of five missiles got through, despite four A-50U radar aircraft flown up to help intercept them. Hours earlier Ukrainian officials reported a fire at Savasleyka air base, about 680 km out, which flies the MiG-31Ks that launch Kinzhal missiles. Unable to buy enough interceptors, Ukraine appears to be reaching for the aircraft that carry the missiles and the plants that build what guides them — ISW puts it no more firmly than 'appear to be targeting', and Russia acknowledged neither strike. On 19 August the General Staff said the Progress strike hit the Soyuz engine assembly workshop.

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Institute for the Study of WarPBS NewsHourInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 14, 2026

The Campaign Reaches the Baltic at Ust-Luga

Overnight into August 14 Ukrainian drones struck the Novatek Ust-Luga oil refinery at Slobodka in Leningrad Oblast, hitting two of its processing units, and set a fire at the port of Ust-Luga itself — Russia's largest Baltic export terminal, the gate through which crude, fuel, coal, fertiliser and grain leave the country's north. The strike is the Ukrainian General Staff's account. The fire is the struck side's own: Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko acknowledged it on his Telegram channel and then closed it down, writing that "all consequences of the attack in the port of Ust-Luga were eliminated, there are no victims" — and publishing no figure for throughput lost, tankage destroyed or loading suspended. Two things make this more than another refinery. One is geography: the campaign's long reach had run east to the Volga and the Urals and south to the Black Sea, and Ust-Luga sits on the Gulf of Finland. The other is repetition — it is the second strike there since early July, the pattern of returning to a site before its repairs are finished.

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Institute for the Study of WarOilprice.com

Aug 11, 2026

A Children's Hospital and a Steelworks, and Ukraine Goes Quiet on the Missile Count

Russia's overnight package into August 11 combined ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles — Iskander-M, a North Korean-provided KN-23 and Zircon anti-ship missiles on ballistic tracks — with 120 drones, of which Ukraine downed 98, and it struck industry and hospitals rather than the grid directly. A ballistic missile hit a children's hospital in Kyiv, damaging a gas pipe and the building's glazing; in Zaporizhzhia the steel and iron producer Metinvest confirmed a ballistic strike on its Zaporizhstal works killed seven employees and injured 21, halting coke and blast-furnace production, with the city's wider toll put at at least six dead. The following night brought a further Iskander-M, a Kh-31P and cruise missiles alongside 138 drones, 112 of them downed. What is no longer on the record is how many missiles Russia fired and how many were stopped: Ukraine's Air Force has stopped publishing missile launch and interception counts, a change it described as a security measure, so silence about downed missiles can no longer be read as a failure to intercept. The best independent gauge of the defence — the share of ballistic missiles stopped — has gone dark just as Russia leans on the ballistic weapons Ukraine can least often catch.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 10, 2026

The Deepest Strikes Yet, and the Deadliest, at a Tatarstan Refinery

On August 10 Ukrainian drones reached two of the furthest targets of the campaign and, at one of them, produced its heaviest civilian toll on Russian soil. At Nizhnekamsk in the republic of Tatarstan, roughly 1,200 kilometres from the border, drones set fire to Tatneft's TANECO refinery — one of Russia's largest and most advanced, with a capacity Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces put at about 13 million tonnes of crude a year — and the Tatarstan administration acknowledged the strike. Local authorities said at least 13 people were killed, including a child, and up to 75 wounded; Russian investigators opened a case they called a terrorist attack, saying residential areas had been struck. It is among the deadliest single Ukrainian strikes inside Russia of the war. The same night the General Staff reported hitting the Tobolskneftekhim petrochemical plant at Tobolsk, in Tyumen Oblast about 2,200 kilometres from the border, damaging a gas-fractionation unit rated at some 6.6 million tonnes of feedstock a year. The distance is the furthest the campaign has been placed by the border measure; the toll is the change. A campaign that has for months burned tanks and processing units at range has now, at a refinery ringed by a Soviet-era city, killed civilians in the numbers Russia's own strikes on Ukraine routinely do.

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The GuardianABC News (Australia)Institute for the Study of War

Aug 8, 2026

Russia Turns Back to the Grid, a Month Early, and the Grain Exports Fall

Russia's campaign is pivoting back toward the target it worked all last winter: Ukraine's power grid. Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications, citing US intelligence, warned on August 8 that Russia is preparing a large-scale strike campaign against Kyiv's energy infrastructure before Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24, drawing on its strategic reserve of ballistic missiles — roughly a month earlier than its 2025 winter campaign began, in ISW's reading an attempt to disrupt Ukrainian repairs and to exploit the interceptor shortage before it can be fixed. The overnight packages already point that way. Into August 7, Russia sent 147 strike and decoy drones, of which Ukraine downed 114; Ukrenergo reported outages across five oblasts, Ukrnafta reported seven facilities and four filling stations hit, and Naftogaz said its sites had been struck 287 times in 2026 — more than in 2025 and the first three years of the full-scale war combined. Into August 8 came six Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles and 151 drones; 135 drones were downed, several missiles missed, and no clean missile-interception figure was released. A double-tap drone strike at Pukhivka, in the Kyiv region's Brovary district, killed a grandfather, grandmother and their three-year-old grandson; one more person was killed in the capital by ballistic missiles. And the maritime half of Russia's campaign is now measurable at the far end: after strikes on Black Sea grain ships — the Liberian-flagged EMIL, hit twice as its crew evacuated, and the wheat-carrying Mera Queen — Ukraine's agriculture ministry forecast that farm exports could fall 54 percent in the 2026-27 marketing year, with wheat down 53 percent and grain storage full by early November, according to Bloomberg.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarAl Jazeera English

Aug 7, 2026

The Bill for Wildberries Comes Due: $4.8 Billion, and No Insurance

The warehouse campaign against Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, is now being counted in money rather than buildings, and the counting is coming from the Russian side. A Russian insider source, cited by ISW, put the damage at up to 400 billion rubles — about 4.82 billion dollars — across at least 21 struck facilities representing up to 22 percent of the company's space between July 18 and August 5, and said the company had bought no insurance on any of them, which leaves it carrying the full liability. Reuters, working from satellite imagery, calculates that the strikes have destroyed at least 1.18 million square metres of warehouse space, a fifth of Wildberries' total capacity. The company confirmed a fresh strike in Yekaterinburg on August 7 and, the same day, raised its own product-insurance rates by 40 percent, to as much as 5.6 percent of a consignment's value. The wider damage is financial: a source close to the Kremlin told Reuters the strikes will set off a wave of bankruptcies among the small and medium retailers who stored goods with Wildberries, that no entity in Russia has the capacity to prevent it, and that officials are weighing state-bank loans, tax breaks and subsidies; Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications reports retailers are increasingly seeking debt restructurings, adding to the strain on Russian banks whose asset quality was already deteriorating. It is the clearest corporate-distress accounting the campaign has produced — a measurable effect stated, in this case, by the side absorbing it.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 6, 2026

Four Refineries in Three Nights, and the Independent Numbers Catch Up

Ukraine hit four refineries across three nights. On 5-6 August drones set a large fire at Slavneft-Yanos in Yaroslavl (about 15 million tonnes of crude a year, roughly 700 km from the border): the Security Service named four RVS-2000 tanks and the ELOU-1 and AVT-3 units, ISW cited geolocated footage, and Governor Mikhail Yevrayev acknowledged tank damage. The same night it struck Bashneft-Novoil at Ufa, about 1,200 km out — the third strike there since 2 August, the restrike-before-repair signature. On 7-8 August it hit Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai, whose operational headquarters conceded a fire, and Syzran in Samara Oblast, geolocated and acknowledged by Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev. No depth record: the tempo is the news. Independent figures moved with it — the Kyiv School of Economics put Russian refinery runs at 3.8 million barrels a day, 1.6 million below a year earlier.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarThe Kyiv IndependentCNBCKyiv School of Economics (KSE Institute)Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Aug 5, 2026

Twenty-Eight Missiles at Kyiv, None Stopped, and the Interception Rate in the Data

Overnight into August 5 Russia fired 28 missiles at Ukraine — 24 Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles and four Zircon/Onyx anti-ship missiles on quasi-ballistic tracks — alongside 115 strike and decoy drones, with Kyiv and its region the primary target. Ukrainian forces intercepted none of the 28 missiles; air defences downed 98 of the 115 drones. At least 21 people were killed — 17 in the Kyiv region, the deadliest night the capital area has seen this year, three in Donetsk and one in Kharkiv — and dozens were injured. Zelenskyy said the strikes hit civilian warehouse and logistics facilities — naming Epicentr, Rozetka and Nova Poshta sites, a brewing company and construction-materials depots — along with a railway station and infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, and that the targets "had nothing to do with the war"; a strike on Kyiv's Holosiivskyi district caused a contained ammonia leak, and Kyiv authorities alleged cluster munitions were used. Russia's Defence Ministry said it had struck military logistics hubs and supply chains, and three cargo vessels near Odesa. What is not contested is the failure of the defence: Ukrainian Air Force data analysed by BBC Verify show missile-interception rates fell to 44.4 percent over July 6–August 5 from 66.7 percent a year earlier — 156 of 351 missiles downed, against 128 of 192 in the same 2025 window — even as Russian missile launches rose 83 percent year on year, while drone-interception rates barely moved (85.8 percent, against 88.4 percent). Zelenskyy said interceptor deliveries are running three times lower than in 2025 and that ballistic interceptors "could have saved the lives of those killed."

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Institute for the Study of WarBBC NewsFinancial TimesAl Jazeera English

Aug 5, 2026

Nineteen Wildberries Warehouses, and Now Belarusian Sellers Are Paying

The campaign against the logistics network of Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, widened: the Institute for the Study of War counts at least 19 of the company's warehouses struck across Russia since the first such strike on July 18. On August 4–5, geolocated footage and Russian governors' and company confirmations recorded fires at Wildberries facilities in Aleksin (Tula Oblast) and Krasny Bor (Leningrad Oblast, near St Petersburg). The cost has now crossed a second border: Belarusian entrepreneurs have petitioned Minsk for compensation, citing an estimated 22,000 Belarusian-owned products stored in the struck Russian warehouses — extending the third-country consequence first seen when the retailer began seeking warehouse space in Kazakhstan. Individual strikes on the chain are now routine; the finding is the cumulative count and the spread of the bill.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 5, 2026

Can Russia Keep Firing Barrages It Cannot Stock? North Korea Ships More Missiles

The August 5 barrage that Ukraine could not touch turns on a supply-side question: whether Russia can sustain zero-interception ballistic packages against Ukraine's depleted interceptor stocks. Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR), via Reuters, said on August 5 that North Korea has begun deploying a missile unit — about 90 soldiers, up to 120 ballistic missiles and six launchers — to Voronezh Oblast in western Russia; an earlier batch of some 40 KN-23/24 missiles and personnel had already arrived, and the North Korean missile used in Russia's July 29–30 strike came from it. The Institute for the Study of War notes Russia expended up to two-thirds of its planned annual Zircon production in the first 19 days of July, launching faster than it builds — so roughly 160 added North Korean missiles would let it keep or enlarge ballistic barrages without drawing down its own S-400 and Zircon stocks. The transfer itself is a weapons-supply development; what bears on this campaign is the balance it shifts — between Russia's capacity to keep firing and Ukraine's shrinking capacity to intercept.

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Institute for the Study of WarAl Jazeera English

Aug 4, 2026

The SBU Totals Its Own 40-Day Campaign: 100 Strikes, by Its Own Count

On August 4 Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) announced that in a 40-day operation begun June 26 its drone operators had conducted more than 100 strikes across a wide Russian target set — 14 oil refineries and other oil-infrastructure sites, defence-industrial plants, air bases (Engels in Saratov Oblast, Khanskaya in Adygea and bases in occupied Crimea), command posts, air-defence assets, two cargo ships and two shadow-fleet tankers — and claimed to have destroyed a Tu-95MS strategic bomber, two Su-35 fighters and two L-39 trainers. Zelenskyy said he had approved a further SBU operation without specifying its scope. The figures are the striking service's own account of its own operation, relayed by the Institute for the Study of War without independent per-item geolocation, and are recorded as such — a self-tally in a different category from the Unmanned Systems Forces' running substation counts, not a revision of them.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 3, 2026

A Drone Hits a Black Sea Beach, and the Toll Is the Governor's

On August 3 a drone struck a beach near the Russian Black Sea resort town of Gelendzhik, in Krasnodar Krai. Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said six people were killed, including three children, and about 40 injured, and blamed Ukraine; other Russian officials put the toll higher, at seven dead. Ukraine's military did not comment. BBC Verify geolocated the footage to the beachfront but corroborated only that a drone struck there — the casualty figures are the governor's account, not independently verified. The beach lies about 40 kilometres from the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk, reported as the likely intended target, which raises the possibility of an errant strike. It is the campaign's second civilian-beach toll of the war and marks, if the account holds, a change in what the maritime campaign is hitting near a defended naval port.

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BBC NewsBBC News

Aug 3, 2026

Russians have destroyed or damaged more than 80 percent of Ukraine's power generation.

— Denys Shmyhal Mixed

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Politico EuropeInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 1, 2026

Russian Barrage Hits Kyiv and the Lithuanian Embassy as Interceptors Run Low

Russia escalated its ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, launching a barrage of 27 ballistic missiles at the capital. Ukraine was only able to shoot down one of the missiles, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explicitly blaming the low interception rate on a critical shortage of Patriot interceptors. The strikes killed at least nine people and injured dozens, partially destroying a five-storey residential building in the Solomyanskyi district and another building in the Darnytskyi district. Debris from the strikes also landed near the Lithuanian embassy, breaking windows and scattering across the compound, prompting Lithuania's foreign minister to announce they would summon the Russian representative in protest.

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BBC NewsThe Guardian

Aug 1, 2026

Ukraine Strikes the Engels Airbase, Russian Refineries, and Sinks the Yanina

Ukraine continued its deep-strike campaign against Russian infrastructure and military assets. Ukrainian drones struck the Engels airfield in the Saratov region—a major base for Russian Tu-95MC and Tu-160 strategic bombers—as well as a major oil refinery in Saratov, an oil depot in Kaluga, and a drone launch site in Bryansk. The strikes killed at least nine people across the Udmurtia, Belgorod, and Saratov regions, including a drone strike on a car over 1,300 kilometres from the front line. Meanwhile, in the Black Sea, Ukrainian drones sank the 100,000-tonne Russian-owned container ship Yanina, which Zelenskyy characterized as sustaining the war effort, while Rosatom claimed it was carrying civilian goods. The campaign also struck two more Wildberries warehouses in the Samara region, continuing Ukraine's targeting of logistics hubs it says supply the Russian military.

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BBC NewsThe GuardianAl Jazeera English

Jul 30, 2026

A Family Dies at Radushne in Russia's Heaviest Package in Weeks

Overnight into July 30 Russia fired more than 70 missiles (many ballistic) and over 280 drones at at least ten regions; defences downed more than 260 drones, with no interception figure published for the missiles. At least eight civilians were killed. Six died at Radushne near Kryvyi Rih, where a ballistic missile destroyed a house — a six-year-old girl and boys of 11 and 17 with their parents; the family's full toll was not established, some victims identifiable only from fragments. Ballistic missiles hit Kyiv, killing one, and cruise missiles struck residential high-rises in Lviv, where the injured count climbed through the morning past 34, including children. In Poltava drones hit a Nova Poshta logistics terminal, the second postal terminal struck in twelve days. The Russian Defence Ministry's published target list named air bases and arms, drone, missile and aircraft-repair plants; power generation appears nowhere on it. Zelenskyy, who had warned a mass assault was coming and pressed partners on Patriot interceptors, cited "the critical shortage of air defense missiles from our partners".

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NPRKyiv PostThe Guardian

Jul 30, 2026

The Russians may be counting that they might break Ukraine's resistance by attacks on heating and, in power generation. They have destroyed 80% of Ukraine's electricity generating capacity, which of course affects not only civilians but also, production capabilities in the defence sector and so on.

— Radosław Sikorski Mixed

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The Guardian

Jul 29, 2026

Two Refineries in One Night, and the Aim Point Narrows to a Single Unit

On the night of July 28-29 Ukrainian drones struck two of Russia's largest refineries at once. At Ryazan — about 465 kilometres from the international border by the ISW's measure, about 360 by the Kyiv Independent's — a fire broke out at the Rosneft plant that processes upwards of 17 million tonnes of crude a year, roughly 5 percent of Russia's refining output; Governor Pavel Malkov acknowledged a massive drone attack, fires in industrial areas and six people hospitalised, without naming the target. A Wildberries warehouse complex in the same city burned, and the retailer's press service confirmed it had evacuated the site and restricted access to it. And about 1,465 kilometres out, at Perm, Ukraine's Security Service claimed a strike on the Lukoil refinery that processes nearly 13 million tonnes a year, with the ISW citing geolocated footage of damage to its AVT-5 primary processing unit; Perm Krai's governor conceded only that drones had damaged an industrial facility. That single-unit aim point is the campaign's new signature. The Financial Times, citing Ukrainian military planners, drone operators and energy specialists, reports that the campaign has shifted from broad strikes on refineries to targeted strikes on components that are hard to replace, and now returns to the same equipment before repairs are finished. Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Magyar" Brovdi says his forces have struck 164 energy infrastructure targets across the theatre since July 1, including thirteen substations in occupied Kherson, Crimea and Luhansk on this night alone — a count published by the striking force and not independently verified, and a broader category than the 154 substations he claimed three days earlier rather than a revision of that figure. The commercial consequences keep travelling outward: Kommersant reports that Wildberries is seeking warehouse space in Kazakhstan and will not lease any more in Russia because of the strike risk, while Reuters reports the Kremlin is weighing tax breaks and state-bank loans to keep the company standing.

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The Kyiv IndependentInstitute for the Study of WarFinancial Times

Jul 27, 2026

Ukraine Strikes 2,000 Kilometres Deep, and Kazakhstan Loses Half Its Oil Output

The campaign reached its furthest point of the war and, for the first time on this record, measurably cost a third country. On July 25 Ukrainian drones hit the Antipinsky refinery near Tyumen — roughly 1,980 kilometres from the frontline — confirmed three ways: ISW geolocation, Zelensky, and Tyumen Governor Alexander Moor, who reported a fire. Overnight July 26-27 Zelensky confirmed strikes in Yaroslavl Oblast and Udmurtia, over 1,300 kilometres from the border, and the General Staff and Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar reported an export terminal hit at Rostov-on-Don (the two distances are measured differently, frontline vs border). Brovdi put July's tally of struck Russian substations at 154 — his force's own unverified claim. Deputy PM Alexander Novak said Russia will extend its gasoline export ban to end-2026 (gasoline suspended April 1, diesel July 8). And ISW, relaying Reuters, reported Kazakhstan's daily oil-and-condensate output more than halved to about one million barrels, from a June average of 2.16 million, after strikes closed its main Black Sea export terminal — the figure resting on a single anonymous source; Kazakhstan's energy ministry reported the Caspian Pipeline Consortium resuming July 27.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Jul 24, 2026

Ukraine's Drone War Reaches Russia's Shopping Baskets

Ukrainian drones struck warehouses belonging to Wildberries — Russia's largest online marketplace, which handles 52% of the country's online orders — in St Petersburg, the adjacent Leningrad region and Simferopol in occupied Crimea on July 24, the latest in a wave that began on the night of July 18–19 and has hit at least nine of the retailer's logistics sites. ISW geolocation independently confirmed fires at Wildberries hubs near Krasnodar City and Nevinnomyssk on July 21 and near Voronezh on July 23, and recorded earlier strikes in Moscow and Tambov oblasts. The struck sites cover about 552,000 square metres, roughly a tenth of the company's warehouse capacity; the Moscow research firm Data Insight put the destroyed merchandise at 170 billion roubles (about $2.2 billion), though the same firm's lead analyst told the Associated Press losses could run to about $3 billion while cautioning there is not enough data to assess. At least nine people have been killed. Most of the loss falls not on Wildberries but on the independent sellers whose stock burned — and the company changed its seller terms 11 days before the first strike to exempt itself from liability for goods destroyed by 'force majeure', explicitly including drone attacks. It has since begun payments prioritising more than 88,000 of its smallest sellers; one seller said he received 19,000 roubles against 4.6 million roubles of losses, 'less than 1% of the total'. After months of striking refineries and fuel infrastructure, the campaign marks a turn to the consumer logistics network that grew into the gap Western brands left after 2022 — the first phase of Ukraine's long-range war whose effects are felt directly in ordinary Russian households.

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The GuardianPBS NewsHourInstitute for the Study of WarAssociated PressNV (Novoye Vremya)

Jul 24, 2026

Ballistic Strike on Defence-Industry Gathering Near Kyiv Kills at Least 10

A Russian ballistic missile struck the grounds of a privately operated military training site in the Bucha district, 20 to 30 kilometres from central Kyiv, that was hosting a defence-industry event on July 24, killing at least 10 people and wounding nearly 100 according to Ukrainian government and industry officials. The Ukrainian Defence Industry Council, the country's largest association of private defence manufacturers, said industry representatives were at the site when it was hit; acting regional military administration head Ruslan Oliinyk reported 27 homes and 44 vehicles also damaged. The Ukrainian government imposed reporting restrictions on the attack, so the figures may be incomplete. Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko opened two cases — a war-crimes investigation into the strike itself and, unusually, a separate criminal case over possible negligence by the event's Ukrainian organisers, with investigators to examine who approved its location, timing and format. The strike came a day after Zelenskyy met senior Raytheon representatives in Kyiv and said the maker of the Patriot system was ready to co-produce interceptors with Ukraine — a claim Raytheon has not confirmed — and Zelenskyy said afterwards that 'missiles for the Patriot systems are the top priority'.

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Associated PressThe Independent

Jul 20, 2026

Ukraine Strikes Moscow With Hundreds of Drones in Retaliation

On the night of July 19–20, a day after Russia's record barrage on Kyiv, Ukraine struck Moscow and the surrounding oblast with hundreds of drones — Russian officials said roughly 400 were aimed at the Moscow region. Geolocated footage confirmed drones hitting a Wildberries logistics warehouse in Domodedovo, while Russian opposition monitors and NASA fire-detection data placed a second strike on an oil depot in Podolsk; President Zelenskyy acknowledged hitting an oil depot and logistics facilities in Moscow Oblast. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and Oblast Governor Andrei Vorobyov confirmed the attack, which authorities said wounded at least 10 people. The same night Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported destroying six Russian air-defense systems — a Tor-M2 launcher and Kasta-2E2, Gamma-C1M and two Nebo-SV radars — in Krasnodar Krai, part of a sustained effort to peel back Russia's air-defense umbrella. The strike extended the tit-for-tat long-range exchange that has come to define the war with the frontline frozen.

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Institute for the Study of WarThe Guardian

Jul 19, 2026

Russia Hits Kyiv With One of the War's Largest Missile Barrages

On the night of July 18–19, Russia struck Kyiv and other cities with one of its largest ballistic missile barrages of the war — roughly 40 missiles, including Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, Zircon hypersonic missiles, and Onyx and Kh-59/69 guided missiles, alongside about 125 strike drones over a five-hour assault. Ukraine's Air Force downed 18 missiles and 108 drones, but at least one civilian was killed and up to 16 wounded in Kyiv, with at least six killed nationwide — including three at a Nova Poshta postal terminal in Kharkiv and a 16-year-old in Odesa — while a cruise-missile strike on the Guinea-Bissau-flagged bulk carrier Golden Leo near Odesa killed 10 — nine crew members, among them four Indian nationals, and a Ukrainian maritime pilot — the deadliest attack on a merchant ship of the war as Russia intensifies strikes on the Black Sea grain corridor. Zelenskyy said Russia had spent days stockpiling missiles for the strike and was exploiting a global shortage of Patriot interceptors, the munition best able to down ballistic missiles; the ISW noted Russia is now launching more ballistic missiles than it produces each month, drawing down its stockpiles while cutting drone volumes. Acting Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called it "a brutal terrorist attack" and said "the coward in Moscow, who is afraid to meet with President Zelenskyy to end the war, continues to wage a war against civilians" — the barrage undercutting President Trump's July 15 prediction that Putin was "ready to reach a peace agreement soon."

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Institute for the Study of WarAl Jazeera EnglishThe GuardianNPRBBC News

Jul 18, 2026

Ukraine Launches Mass Deep-Strike Wave Into Russia

Ukrainian drones struck sites deep inside Russia in one of the largest single-wave operations of the war, killing at least nine people and wounding more than 60, according to Russian officials. Two Wildberries logistics warehouses were hit — in Kotovsk (Tambov region) and in Elektrostal, roughly 50km east of Moscow — and an oil depot in Noginsk caught fire. Russia's Defense Ministry said it intercepted 379 drones over 19 regions. Zelenskyy said the targeted facilities supplied sanctioned components for Russian drone and navigation-equipment production. Independent Russian outlets later estimated the strikes damaged roughly 7–15% of Wildberries' warehouse capacity, with losses of around 100 billion rubles (~$1.28 billion).

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PBS NewsHourInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

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